Allocation

Here we go again... The demand for pellet stoves and fuel has again reached record breaking levels- at least in the NorthEast. On the one hand I get very excited when pellet receives the support and enthusiasm I feel it should get every year but, I do worry about the long term effects of such out of the ordinary demand.
The hearth industry, and the pellet sector are coming off one or two of the worst years on record. Dealers, distributors, and manufacturer's were sitting on warehouses full of goods and banging their heads on the wall trying to figure out what happened? and how to get things moving again. Then during this spring there were hints. Sales promotions yielded much better than average results, calls started coming in early for pre-buy stove orders. By the time the pellet early buy order letters went out there was no stopping it. Orders poured in via the phone, fax, and e-mail. Just when you thought it would slow down a bit it would double.
The first month or two were o.k. Mills were just ramping up for the year and were able to keep up. Then we started losing ground- FAST! Mills could not keep up. Some of it due to the sheer volume requested, some due to trucking logistics.
The old saying is that the mills have the most product in the spring, but actually the opposite is true. During the winter their sawdust supplies actually decrease because suppliers generally use a good portion of it to heat their own buildings. Put that on top of late winter demand for pellets and you end up with the leanest supply of fuel in the spring. Larger mills are able to produce about the same amount of product throughout the year due to larger numbers of raw material contracts, and mill capacity but they certainly don't come out of the heating season with a larger than normal supply.
The word got out early this year somehow and everyone was ordering their fuel early, and in amounts often exceeding what they usually use in a heating season. This alone has created an unprecedented bottleneck! Then the hoarding. This is about as close to an attempted death blow our industry can face at this point. People hoard one year and we can't keep up causing rumors and speculation about the viability, then the next year no one is buying fuel, leaving dealers, and manufacturer's sitting on excess inventory barely surviving... Vicious cycle!
By the end of June most manufacturer's have a pile of massive speculation orders on their desk, and dealers are sold out as far as they dared to sell. Then the inevitable price increases come. The demand is so high the mills are running seven days a week, and up to 24 hours a day. Overtime costs. If a machine goes down it needs to be fixed NOW! Overnight costs on parts, and higher maintenance costs. We need more raw material. Highest bidder, and higher costs for product NOW! Add to that increasing trucking costs, and the weakening US dollar...
Now the dealers, who generally work on a tight margin anyway are taking it on the chin. We absorbed the first price increase, then a second. By the time the third increase comes around you have to send out a letter or make a dreaded phone call to soon angry consumers who don't want to pay a higher price... Allocations kick in. You can have 110% of what you purchased in year's past, or I can only get you X amount of fuel this month. Then loads don't show up because of production glitches, or trucking issues. In many years this inability to get more fuel has slowed sales. Not this year... I really suspect that this may be the last year pellet manufacturer's offer early buy programs at least as we have seen them in the past. The need to distribute fuel year round (as it is made) will need to happen. The mad rush we are getting in the spring is no longer managable.
The back side of this is stoves. You can't get a Harman stove in New England until next year. Most other manufacturer's are back ordered until October, November, or December at this point. In the past the manufacturer's have ramped up their facilities, added shifts and production lines to try to meet the demand. This year Hearth and Home Technologies, owner of the largest pellet stove manufacturer Harman, as well as Quadrafire decided to change the game. In an attempt to control the beast they made the decision to NOT double, triple... production to meet the demand. They are setting allocation levels so as not to flood the market with stoves that may not be able to get fuel. While this may be frustrating in the short term I am hopeful that it will help control the wild swings this industry has been going through. To a consumer I say that these stoves last fifteen to twenty years if you take care of them, and Europe has already proven that it is a viable alternative fuel source, so even if you have to wait until next spring it is worth it!